On Friday, BTC reached an eight-week low of $107,900, breaking below its local range of $108,700 to $119,500. The move has traders debating whether Bitcoin could retest deeper levels around the $94,000 zone if critical supports fail to hold.
Market Fatigue Signals Emerge
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted growing signs of market fatigue. He pointed to Bitcoin dominance showing weakness after leading the bulk of the bull market momentum. According to Martinez, the current structure mirrors the 2021 cycle peak, when Bitcoin hit $60,000 in April, retraced, then rallied to $70,000 before the market collapsed into a prolonged bearish phase.
Martinez explained that Bitcoin’s current setup is showing bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), where price forms higher highs while the RSI trends lower. This pattern, he said, was a key warning sign before the last major cycle reversal.
Adding to the caution, Martinez noted that the MACD indicator turned bearish this week, reinforcing downside risks. He also highlighted a death cross on the Bitcoin MVRV Momentum indicator, which historically signals cyclical tops and momentum reversals from bullish to bearish trends.
“On-chain evidence suggests Bitcoin’s top may already be in, at least temporarily,” Martinez said, warning that bias is shifting bearish with a growing risk of retesting lower support levels.
Crucial Support at $108,700
Analysts agree that the $108,700 support zone is critical for Bitcoin’s short-term performance. A weekly close below this level could confirm a deeper trend reversal, just as it did in late 2021, when BTC fell from $58,000 and eventually broke down to macro lows in the months that followed.
If BTC loses its immediate technical floor, Martinez forecasts potential retests of $104,500 and $97,000, with the possibility of sliding further toward $94,000, the mid-zone of the macro range.
Market commentator Altcoin Sherpa echoed similar concerns, noting that Bitcoin should find strong support between $103,000 and $108,000, given that the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently sits near $104,000.
$124K Seen as Local Top
Meanwhile, analyst Ted Pillows believes Bitcoin’s recent rally may have already peaked at around $124,000. He pointed out that historically, Bitcoin bottoms often occur after retests of the weekly 60 EMA, which currently lies near $92,000 — a zone that also coincides with a CME gap.
“In this scenario, Bitcoin could enter a reversal after 3–4 weeks and target a new all-time high by November or December,” Pillows said.
As of press time, Bitcoin trades at $107,947, reflecting a 7.5% decline over the past week.
