Bitcoin has staged a notable recovery from its early February lows, briefly pushing above $78,000 before slipping back toward $75,300. Yet beneath the surface, on-chain data suggests the move may not represent a full trend reversal.
According to analysis from CryptoQuant contributor Maartunn, the current structure still resembles a Bitcoin bear market rally rather than a confirmed shift into a sustained uptrend.
Bitcoin trades at $75K, up ~24% from the bear market low.
But is this a true breakout or just another rally?Let’s break it down 👇 pic.twitter.com/QU5f8EXi3i
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) April 20, 2026
Long-Term Holder Supply Builds Quietly
One of the more constructive signals comes from long-term holders (LTHs), defined as wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days.
After months of distribution between mid-2025 and January 2026, the 30-day change in LTH supply has turned positive. Over the past month alone, approximately 345,000 BTC has matured into this cohort.
This shift reflects growing holding conviction as the market stabilized following its February bottom.
However, the metric carries a built-in delay. Coins must age 155 days before being classified as long-term holdings, meaning the current increase reflects earlier accumulation rather than fresh buying.
Short-Term Holders Continue to Exit
While long-term conviction appears to be strengthening, short-term participants are moving in the opposite direction.
Investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days have sent roughly 60,000 BTC to exchanges, a behavior typically associated with selling intent.
4) Why didn’t price break higher?
Two groups are selling:
– STH moved ~60K BTC to exchanges
– Whales (will explain later) pic.twitter.com/1XqYedcgLN— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) April 20, 2026
Additional data shows these holders have been transferring Bitcoin at a loss, indicating that some participants are using the recovery to exit positions rather than re-enter the market.
Larger Holders Add to Selling Pressure
The distribution is not limited to short-term traders.
Entities holding more than 100 BTC have also increased exchange inflows, contributing to a broader layer of supply entering the market during the recovery phase.
This combination—short-term capitulation alongside large-holder distribution—helps explain why upward momentum has struggled to sustain itself.
Price Action Reflects Mixed Signals
Bitcoin’s recent move above $78,000 marked its strongest level since the post-February correction, when prices dropped near $60,000.
However, the inability to hold those gains and the subsequent pullback toward $75,300 suggests that resistance remains firm.
The divergence between improving long-term metrics and persistent selling pressure creates a market caught between accumulation and distribution.
Market Psychology: Conviction vs. Caution
The current setup highlights a split in investor behavior.
Long-term holders appear to be strengthening their positions, signaling confidence in Bitcoin’s structural outlook.
At the same time, short-term participants and some large holders are prioritizing risk management, exiting positions even as prices recover.
This tension often defines transitional phases in market cycles.
What Could Shift the Trend
For the recovery to evolve beyond a bear market rally, selling pressure from short-term and large holders would likely need to ease.
Sustained demand capable of absorbing exchange inflows could help stabilize price action and support further upside.
Until then, the market may continue to move within a range, reacting to shifts in liquidity, sentiment, and broader macro conditions.
Bitcoin’s recent rebound is supported by strengthening long-term holder dynamics, but ongoing distribution from shorter-term participants and large entities is limiting follow-through. The result is a market that shows signs of underlying strength, yet still carries characteristics of a bear market rally.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is provided for informational and editorial purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or legal advice. You should not rely on this content as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency or other asset. Always conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. CoinToria Media and its authors are not responsible for any loss or damage resulting from the use of this information.
